On record: 4 meetings from 2025, 6-8 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-3 in comp-fd-FL1. Against that, current ratings read 1751 and 1618, a 133-point margin, and the model splits the tie 65.2% / 21.1% / 13.7%.
PSG carries the largest share, 65.2%. Versus the 1500 seed: +251 and +118. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Spread thin across outcomes, 2-1 highest at 9.0%. 133 points of rating separation. A 44.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. PSG holds both halves of the profile — 1.49 against 1.26 for scoring, 0.84 against 1.05 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 73.3% / 18.5% / 8.1%. The match did not follow it. Spread across the three results is 51.5 points. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Elo expected shares: 75.8% and 24.2%. Raw profiles are 1.49 and 0.84 against 1.26 and 1.05. The underlying goal expectation is 2.32 for PSG, 1.43 for Monaco. A decisive result carries 78.9% against 21.1% for the draw.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Monaco edged past PSG 2-1 on 4 September 2026. Marquinhos opened the scoring in the 31st minute for PSG, set up by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, to make it 1-0. Flávio Nazinho levelled it 58 minutes into the game for Monaco, set up by Jordan Teze, to make it 1-1. Stanis Idumbo-Muzambo put Monaco in front 72 minutes into the game, set up by Aleksandr Golovin, to make it 2-1. Lucas Hernández (68') and Jordan Teze (68') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make PSG clearly the stronger side, by 133 rating points over Monaco, even though it was Monaco who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Monaco only a 13.7% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Monaco are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.