On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 4-2 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-FL1. The present numbers are 1601 against 1517, and the model turns that into 58.9% / 22.8% / 18.3%.
First to second is a 36.1-point step, RC Lens over the draw. Most likely single result is RC Lens on 58.9%. Raw profiles are 1.44 and 0.99 against 1.04 and 0.94. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Before kickoff our model had this at 67.1% / 20.5% / 12.4%. That one did not come off. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.4%. Rating separation comes to 84 points. The higher-rated side expects 70.2% of the points; the other side 29.8%. The ratings draw on 39 and 37 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Played and finished 0-1. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Each side owns one half of the argument — RC Lens the scoring rate at 1.44, Lorient the conceding rate at 0.94. Spread across the three results is 40.6 points.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Lorient edged past RC Lens 1-0 on 5 September 2026. Mamadou Koné opened the scoring 54 minutes into the game for Lorient, set up by Panos Katseris, to make it 1-0. Souleymane Sagnan (90') was sent off. Nathaniel Adjei (14'), Yacine Titraoui (26'), Michał Skóraś (77') and Souleymane Sagnan (85') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make RC Lens slightly the stronger side, by 84 rating points over Lorient, even though it was Lorient who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Lorient only a 18.3% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.