The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Marseille, 0 to Paris FC, 1 drawn, 7-4 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-FL1. The present numbers are 1488 against 1584, and the model turns that into 32.1% / 26.9% / 41.0%.
Before kickoff our model had this at 45.8% / 25.9% / 28.3%. The match did not follow it. Point estimate: 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Raw profiles are 1.07 and 1.14 against 1.18 and 0.87. It ended 2-3. Ratings sit 96 apart. The gap between first and second outcome is 8.9 points, Paris FC ahead of Marseille. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Most and least likely outcomes are 14.1 points apart. Neither component contradicts the other: Paris FC leads 1.18-1.07 forward and 0.87-1.14 back. Versus the 1500 seed: -12 and +84. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 45.6% to 54.4%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 47 and 38 matches. A decisive result carries 73.1% against 26.9% for the draw. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.3%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Paris FC edged past Marseille 3-2 on 6 September 2026. Lassine Sinayoko opened the scoring inside the first minute for Paris FC, set up by Luca Koleosho, to make it 1-0. Amine Gouiri levelled it inside the first 8 minutes for Marseille to make it 1-1. Paris FC regained the lead through Lassine Sinayoko in the 19th minute, set up by Pablo Pagis, to make it 2-1. Amine Gouiri levelled it 53 minutes into the game for Marseille, set up by Amine Harit, to make it 2-2. Paris FC regained the lead through Lassine Sinayoko from the penalty spot late on, in the 86th minute to make it 3-2. Rudy Matondo (65') and Lassine Sinayoko (87') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Paris FC are 96 points stronger than Marseille. Marseille's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats. Paris FC are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form. Paris FC won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.