Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-0-2 from Brest's side on wins, 0-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-1 in comp-fd-FL1. History aside, the live ratings of 1427 and 1751 drive a 8.9% / 18.9% / 72.2% distribution.
The model's preferred outcome is PSG at 72.2%. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 18.4% to 81.6%. A 63.3-point range top to bottom. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 9.6%. Rounded, that is 1-2. There is no trade-off to weigh: PSG scores at the higher rate (1.49 to 0.90) and concedes at the lower (0.84 to 1.19). Win-or-lose totals 81.1%; the draw takes the rest. First to second is a 53.3-point step, PSG over the draw. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 38 and 56 matches. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. The away side is rated higher. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 324 points. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 11.5% / 20.1% / 68.4%. That call matched the result. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -73 and +251.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
PSG edged past Brest 1-0 on 13 September 2026. Ferrán Torres opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for PSG, set up by Ousmane Dembélé, to make it 1-0. Kamory Doumbia (30'), Vitinha (84') and Pedro Fernández (87') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have PSG 324 points stronger than Brest. On current ratings the model favours PSG at 72.2% in this pairing, and PSG won this one.