Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2026. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-FL1. Currently 1407 against 1403 — a 47.1% / 25.6% / 27.3% split.
On the Elo curve they expect 59.8% and 40.2% of the points. Its point estimate is 1-0. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 15.2% — 1-1 is next at 13.2%. Spread across the three results is 21.5 points. The leading outcome clears the second by 19.8 points. 74.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both components point the same way, toward Le Havre: 0.74 to 0.66 going forward, 0.97 to 1.08 going back. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -93 and -97. A 4-point difference on the rating scale. It ended 0-0. Expected goals 1.19-0.87. 47.1% goes to Le Havre, the model's lean. The higher rating belongs to the home side. In absolute terms: Le Havre 0.74/0.97, Angers SCO 0.66/1.08 on attack and defence. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 39 and 38 rated matches respectively.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.