The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Auxerre, 1 to Nice, 0 drawn, 3-4 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-FL1. The live ratings are 1460 and 1402, giving 55.0% / 23.7% / 21.2%.
The tie closed out 1-0. 76.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The home side is rated higher. Auxerre carries the largest share, 55.0%. Between best and worst outcome there is 33.8 points of daylight. Attack/defence pairs: 0.96/1.10 and 0.66/1.14. Versus the 1500 seed: -40 and -98. With 39 and 38 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The leading outcome clears the second by 31.3 points. Its rounded call is 1-0. Both components point the same way, toward Auxerre: 0.96 to 0.66 going forward, 1.10 to 1.14 going back. By expected share of the points: 67.0% and 33.0%. 1-0 leads the scorelines at 12.0% — not a strong call. Logged in advance of kickoff — 53.2% / 24.2% / 22.6%. That call matched the result. Expected goals 1.63-0.98. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Auxerre edged past Nice 1-0 on 12 September 2026. Cameron Archer opened the scoring 74 minutes into the game for Auxerre, set up by Christ Makosso, to make it 1-0. Kevin Danois (44') and Djibril Coulibaly (74') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Auxerre at 55% in this pairing, and Auxerre won this one.