Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 5-4 in comp-fd-FL1. The present numbers are 1528 against 1618, and the model turns that into 32.7% / 27.1% / 40.2%.
Recorded ahead of kickoff: 40.0% / 27.1% / 32.9%. The match did not follow it. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 38 and 49 rated matches respectively. No scoreline clear 8% individually. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 7.9%. Point estimate: 1-2. Distance between the ratings: 90 points, wide on this scale. In absolute terms: Strasbourg 1.18/1.19, Monaco 1.26/1.05 on attack and defence. Final score: 1-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Expected shares 46.4% against 53.6% on Elo. The leading outcome clears the second by 7.5 points. Between best and worst outcome there is 13.1 points of daylight. Neither component contradicts the other: Monaco leads 1.26-1.18 forward and 1.05-1.19 back. 72.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +28 and +118. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The xG line reads 1.83 to 2.03.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Strasbourg and Monaco drew 1-1 on 12 September 2026. Sadibou Sané (an own goal) opened the scoring 52 minutes into the game for Strasbourg to make it 1-0. Paris Brunner levelled it 71 minutes into the game for Monaco, set up by Lamine Camara, to make it 1-1. Pape Diop (78') and Aleksandr Golovin (90') were booked. Monaco are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.