Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-1-1 from Toulouse's side on wins, 1-2 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-FL1. History aside, the live ratings of 1478 and 1407 drive a 57.0% / 23.2% / 19.7% distribution.
The tie closed out 3-2. Elo expected shares: 68.6% and 31.4%. The gap between first and second outcome is 33.8 points, Toulouse ahead of the draw. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The model gives 76.7% to someone winning. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Logged in advance of kickoff — 52.5% / 24.3% / 23.2%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. The four component numbers read 1.01, 1.12, 0.74, 0.97. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.01 to 0.74 says Toulouse, 0.97 to 1.12 says Le Havre. As a single number the model says 1-1. The three results cover 37.3 points. Behind them are 39 and 39 rated matches. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -22 and -93. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.4%. The rating gap itself is 71 points, which is moderate by the model's standards.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Toulouse edged past Le Havre 3-2 on 19 September 2026. Christ Tapé (34') and Niko Sigur (58') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Toulouse are 71 points stronger than Le Havre. On current ratings the model favours Toulouse at 57% in this pairing, and Toulouse won this one. Toulouse won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.