2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-0. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-FL1. Today those sides rate 1402 and 1574, 172 apart, which resolves to 22.9% / 24.3% / 52.8%.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -98 and +74. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Lille holds both halves of the profile — 1.04 against 0.66 for scoring, 0.81 against 1.14 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. The four component numbers read 0.66, 1.14, 1.04, 0.81. Most and least likely outcomes are 29.9 points apart. Expected shares 35.1% against 64.9% on Elo. Expected goals 0.79-1.60. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Behind them are 38 and 39 rated matches. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 14.6%. The leading outcome clears the second by 28.5 points. Someone wins 75.7% of the time by this model. Ratings sit 172 apart. Most likely single result is Lille on 52.8%. The tie closed out 2-1. Higher rating: the away side. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 19.2% / 23.1% / 57.7%. That one did not come off.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Nice edged past Lille 2-1 on 20 September 2026. Nathan Ngoy (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 22nd minute for Nice to make it 1-0. Mohammed Amoura added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Nice, set up by Gauthier Hein, to make it 2-0. Ayase Ueda pulled one back 79 minutes into the game for Lille, set up by Maurits Kjærgaard, to make it 1-2. Mohamed Abdelmonem (5'), Junior Mandza (45') and Mohammed Amoura (57') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Lille clearly the stronger side, by 172 rating points over Nice, even though it was Nice who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Nice only a 22.9% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes.