The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2026: 1 to Auxerre, 1 to Brest, 0 drawn, 3-2 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 3-0 in comp-fd-FL1. The live ratings are 1460 and 1427, giving 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.0%.
Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 39 and 38 rated matches respectively. The xG line reads 1.70 to 1.33. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -40 and -73. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Auxerre's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 63.7%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Its rounded call is 1-1. Most likely single result is Auxerre on 51.4%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The match finished 2-1. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 44.7% / 26.1% / 29.2%. It landed. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.9%. The four component numbers read 0.96, 1.10, 0.90, 1.19. The gap between first and second outcome is 26.8 points, Auxerre ahead of the draw. Auxerre is ahead on each half — 0.96 to 0.90 in attack, 1.10 to 1.19 in defence.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Auxerre edged past Brest 2-1 on 20 September 2026. Pathé Mboup opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for Brest, set up by Joris Chotard, to make it 1-0. Cameron Archer levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Auxerre, set up by Daniel Namaso, to make it 1-1. Raphaël Le Guen (an own goal) put Auxerre in front late on, in the 83rd minute to make it 2-1. Christ Makosso (73') and Kenny Lala (82') were booked.