Prior record: 2-1-1 across 4 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in Ligue 1. The live ratings are 1533 and 1568, giving 40.8% / 26.9% / 32.2%.
Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Played and finished 1-0. The away side is rated higher. Someone wins 73.0% of the time by this model. 35 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. The gap between first and second outcome is 8.6 points, Lorient ahead of Paris FC. Neither figure is thin: 38 and 39 matches respectively sit behind them. Attack/defence pairs: 1.02/0.88 and 1.11/0.86. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 40.8% goes to Lorient, the model's lean. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 35.7% / 27.9% / 36.3%. That one did not come off. Expected goals come out at 1.30 to 1.31. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 12.5%. Elo expected shares: 54.3% and 45.7%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Paris FC scores at the higher rate (1.11 to 1.02) and concedes at the lower (0.86 to 0.88). Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +33 and +68.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Lorient came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring five goals and conceding six. On 19 September, Lorient recorded a 2-1 defeat visiting Le Mans.
Lorient's away from home game on 19 September (Ligue 1) ended 1-2 against Le Mans, with one goal for and two against. On 12 September, Toulouse faced Lorient in Ligue 1: Lorient drew 2-2 at home, having scored two and conceded two. Ligue 1, 5 September brought an away meeting with RC Lens; Lorient won 1-0, a return of one goal scored and zero conceded. Lorient hosted Troyes on 29 August (Ligue 1) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Nice hosted Lorient (Ligue 1) on 22 August. For Lorient, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Lorient: 13th, five points, five matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
Paris FC were unbeaten in their last five games, with three wins and two draws, scoring eight goals and conceding three, keeping three clean sheets. A 2-1 win at home to Strasbourg (19 September) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 3-0 at home to Nice on 30 August.
The 19 September fixture (Ligue 1) paired Paris FC with Strasbourg. Paris FC won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Olympique Lyon (Ligue 1), Paris FC finished 0-0 on 12 September. Their score comprised zero goals, against zero from the opposition. 6 September: Paris FC won 3-2 against Marseille away from home in Ligue 1, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Nice in Ligue 1, Paris FC scored three and conceded zero on 30 August; the at home result was 3-0. Paris FC's away from home game on 22 August (Ligue 1) ended 0-0 against Troyes, with zero goals for and zero against.
Paris FC: 4th, 11 points, five matches in the calculated Ligue 1 standings at kickoff.
The teams' recorded encounters ended in a 1-1 draw at Lorient on 5 April and a 2-0 home win for Lorient on 4 February.
After the match
Lorient edged past Paris FC 1-0 on 10 October 2026. Gabin Bernardeau opened the scoring 68 minutes into the game for Lorient, set up by Jean-Victor Makengo, to make it 1-0. 7 players were booked, among them Lassine Sinayoko (52'), Samir Chergui (58'), Hamari Traoré (58'), Montassar Talbi (70'), Patrick Zabi (74') and Maxime López (90'). Our current Elo ratings make Paris FC slightly the stronger side, by 35 rating points over Lorient, even though it was Lorient who won this one. Lorient: two yellow cards. Lorient made four changes. Gabin Bernardeau scored in minute 68 following entry for Lorient in the 66th minute. five yellow cards went to Paris FC. Paris FC: five substitutions. Patrick Zabi entered for Paris FC at 65 minutes and later was booked. A clean sheet for Lorient.