2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-1. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-DED. History aside, the live ratings of 1460 and 1503 drive a 39.5% / 27.2% / 33.3% distribution.
In absolute terms: Go Ahead 1.15/1.11, Groningen 1.09/0.98 on attack and defence. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Top of the distribution: Go Ahead, 39.5%. Win-or-lose totals 72.8%; the draw takes the rest. Both figures rest on decent samples, 34 and 34 matches. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 10.0%. The gap between first and second outcome is 6.2 points, Go Ahead ahead of Groningen. It ended 1-1. The higher-rated side expects 46.8% of the points; the other side 53.2%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Rounded, that is 1-1. The rating gap itself is 43 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 12.3 points of daylight. Neither side holds both halves — Go Ahead scores at 1.15, Groningen concedes at 0.98. Expected goals 1.67-1.63. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -40 and +3.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Go Ahead and Groningen drew 1-1 on 12 September 2026. Brynjolfur Darri Willumsson opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Groningen, set up by Pelle Clement, to make it 1-0. Søren Tengstedt levelled it late on, in the 82nd minute for Go Ahead, set up by Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson, to make it 1-1. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Groningen are 43 points stronger than Go Ahead.