Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 2-0-0 in Heerenveen's favour on wins, 6-2 on goals. The last was 2026, 3-0 in comp-fd-DED. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1528 and 1489 — 39 points — for a 52.4% / 24.4% / 23.3% split.
It ended 0-0. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 1.19 against 1.19, conceding rates of 1.06 against 1.11. The three results cover 29.1 points. Expected shares 64.5% against 35.5% on Elo. Goal expectation splits 1.96 to 1.70. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. A decisive result carries 75.7% against 24.4% for the draw. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 8.5% — not a strong call. With 34 and 34 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The rating gap itself is 39 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Heerenveen holds a 28.0-point edge on the next outcome. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The model's preferred outcome is Heerenveen at 52.4%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +28 and -11.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.