On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 8-1 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-DED. The live ratings are 1684 and 1417, giving 78.9% / 16.4% / 4.7%.
Higher rating: the home side. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +184 and -83. Both components point the same way, toward PSV: 2.04 to 0.85 going forward, 1.08 to 1.38 going back. Attack/defence pairs: 2.04/1.08 and 0.85/1.38. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The ratings draw on 42 and 34 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Top of the distribution: PSV, 78.9%. Most and least likely outcomes are 74.2 points apart. Flat distribution — 4-1 tops it at just 7.0%. By expected share of the points: 87.1% and 12.9%. 83.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 4-1. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Final score: 4-1. The rating gap itself is 267 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The model's expected-goals figures are 4.16 and 1.25. The leading outcome clears the second by 62.5 points.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
PSV comfortably beat Sparta 4-1 on 13 September 2026. Bruno Martins Indi (30') was booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have PSV 267 points stronger than Sparta. All the scoring was done by half time. On current ratings the model favours PSV at 78.9% in this pairing, and PSV won this one.