2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-8. The latest was 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-DED. History aside, the live ratings of 1405 and 1577 drive a 22.9% / 24.2% / 52.9% distribution.
Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -95 and +77. The xG line reads 1.52 to 2.60. Scorelines above 8%: 1. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The gap between first and second outcome is 28.7 points, Feyenoord ahead of the draw. The model's preferred outcome is Feyenoord at 52.9%. Elo expected shares: 35.1% and 64.9%. It ended 0-7. The single-scoreline output is 1-2. Between best and worst outcome there is 30.0 points of daylight. The ratings draw on 34 and 35 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Someone wins 75.8% of the time by this model. Feyenoord holds both halves of the profile — 1.27 against 0.94 for scoring, 1.09 against 1.52 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. In absolute terms: Zwolle 0.94/1.52, Feyenoord 1.27/1.09 on attack and defence. The away side is rated higher. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-2 on 8.3%. The two ratings differ by 172 points.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Feyenoord overwhelmed Zwolle 7-0 on 13 September 2026. Simon Graves (an own goal) opened the scoring in the 18th minute for Feyenoord to make it 1-0. Nacho Ferri added to the tally in the 23rd minute for Feyenoord, set up by Givairo Read, to make it 2-0. Gjivai Zechiël added to the tally in the 40th minute for Feyenoord, set up by Givairo Read, to make it 3-0. Nacho Ferri added to the tally 49 minutes into the game for Feyenoord to make it 4-0. Anis Moussa added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Feyenoord, set up by Luciano Valente, to make it 5-0. Jivayno Zinhagel added to the tally 69 minutes into the game for Feyenoord, set up by Givairo Read, to make it 6-0. Anis Moussa added to the tally 77 minutes into the game for Feyenoord, set up by Mika Marmol, to make it 7-0. Jivayno Zinhagel scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Feyenoord 172 points stronger than Zwolle. On current ratings the model puts Feyenoord at around 2.6 goals in this pairing; they scored 7 here.