Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-DED. Currently 1417 against 1528 — a 30.3% / 26.4% / 43.3% split.
73.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The ratings draw on 34 and 34 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The tie closed out 0-4. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-2 at 9.4%. The four component numbers read 0.85, 1.38, 1.19, 1.06. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 43.4% to 56.6%. Heerenveen leads the distribution by 13.0 points over Sparta. The higher rating belongs to the away side. A 111-point difference on the rating scale. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -83 and +28. Outcomes span 16.9 points. Rounded, that is 1-2. Most likely single result is Heerenveen on 43.3%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Heerenveen scores at the higher rate (1.19 to 0.85) and concedes at the lower (1.06 to 1.38). 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The xG line reads 1.34 to 2.20. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Heerenveen overwhelmed Sparta 4-0 on 19 September 2026. Nolhan Courtens opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Heerenveen, set up by Levi Smans, to make it 1-0. Jacob Trenskow added to the tally in the 43rd minute for Heerenveen, set up by Maxence Rivera, to make it 2-0. Maxence Rivera added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Heerenveen, set up by Levi Smans, to make it 3-0. Marko Farji added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Heerenveen, set up by Luca Oyen, to make it 4-0. Julian Baas (24') and Marvin Young (61') were booked. Marko Farji scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Heerenveen 111 points stronger than Sparta.