Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-2-0 from Groningen's side on wins, 3-3 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-DED. The present numbers are 1503 against 1405, and the model turns that into 60.8% / 22.3% / 16.9%.
The scoreline spread is even — 2-1 on 9.3% leads, but only just. Played and finished 3-0. Attack/defence pairs: 1.09/0.98 and 0.94/1.52. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Most and least likely outcomes are 43.9 points apart. 98 points of rating separation. Someone wins 77.7% of the time by this model. Groningen carries the largest share, 60.8%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +3 and -95. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. By expected share of the points: 71.9% and 28.1%. Groningen holds a 38.5-point edge on the next outcome. xG: 2.46 to 1.25. There is no trade-off to weigh: Groningen scores at the higher rate (1.09 to 0.94) and concedes at the lower (0.98 to 1.52). Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Both figures rest on decent samples, 34 and 34 matches. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 2-1.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Groningen comfortably beat Zwolle 3-0 on 18 September 2026. Thom van Bergen opened the scoring in the 20th minute for Groningen, set up by David van der Werff, to make it 1-0. Jorg Schreuders added to the tally in the 43rd minute for Groningen to make it 2-0. Tygo Land added to the tally 68 minutes into the game for Groningen, set up by David van der Werff, to make it 3-0. Sheral Floranus (79') and Koen Kostons (79') were booked. Tygo Land scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Groningen are 98 points stronger than Zwolle. On current ratings the model favours Groningen at 60.8% in this pairing, and Groningen won this one. Groningen won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.