On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 3-4 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-DED. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1541 and 1460 — 81 points — for a 58.4% / 22.9% / 18.7% split.
The higher rating expects 69.9% of the points, the lower 30.1%. A decisive result carries 77.1% against 22.9% for the draw. Played and finished 2-2. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Raw profiles are 1.21 and 0.93 against 1.11 and 1.13. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Top of the distribution: Ajax, 58.4%. 81 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Scorelines above 8%: 2. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +41 and -40. Both figures rest on decent samples, 42 and 34 matches. Ajax holds both halves of the profile — 1.21 against 1.11 for scoring, 0.93 against 1.13 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The distribution runs from 58.4% down to 18.7%. The gap between first and second outcome is 35.5 points, Ajax ahead of the draw. xG: 2.03 to 1.40.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Ajax and Excelsior drew 2-2 on 19 September 2026. Julian Brandt opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Ajax, set up by Kasper Dolberg, to make it 1-0. Lennard Hartjes levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Excelsior to make it 1-1. Aymen Sliti put Excelsior in front 62 minutes into the game, set up by Irakli Yegoian, to make it 2-1. Toluwalas Arokodare levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Ajax, set up by Oscar Gloukh, to make it 2-2. Jan Plug (35'), Oscar Gloukh (85') and Irakli Yegoian (85') were booked. Toluwalas Arokodare scored after coming off the bench. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Ajax are 81 points stronger than Excelsior.