On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 4-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-DED. Today those sides rate 1577 and 1566, 11 apart, which resolves to 48.2% / 25.3% / 26.5%.
Between best and worst outcome there is 22.9 points of daylight. Feyenoord's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 60.8%. Higher rating: the home side. Expected goals come out at 1.71 to 1.77. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 35 and 34 matches. The model gives 74.7% to someone winning. Played and finished 5-0. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.3%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +77 and +66. 11 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin. A 21.7-point margin separates the top two outcomes. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The four component numbers read 1.27, 1.09, 1.21, 0.91. Its rounded call is 1-1. 48.2% goes to Feyenoord, the model's lean. Neither side holds both halves — Feyenoord scores at 1.27, Utrecht concedes at 0.91.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Feyenoord overwhelmed Utrecht 5-0 on 20 September 2026. Anis Moussa opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Feyenoord, set up by Givairo Read, to make it 1-0. Nacho Ferri added to the tally inside the first 9 minutes for Feyenoord, set up by Mika Marmol, to make it 2-0. Anis Moussa added to the tally in the 33rd minute for Feyenoord to make it 3-0. Luciano Valente added to the tally from the penalty spot 53 minutes into the game for Feyenoord to make it 4-0. Gaoussou Diarra added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Feyenoord, set up by Gjivai Zechiël, to make it 5-0. Marius Broholm (62'), Javi López (70'), Gaoussou Diarra (73') and Nikolas Panayiotou (80') were booked. Gaoussou Diarra scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings the model puts Feyenoord at around 1.71 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here.