The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 2 to AZ, 0 to Telstar, 0 drawn, 3-1 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-DED. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1521 and 1489 — 32 points — for a 51.4% / 24.6% / 24.0% split.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 34 and 34 matches. First to second is a 26.8-point step, AZ over the draw. Most likely single result is AZ on 51.4%. Versus the 1500 seed: +21 and -11. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Point estimate: 1-1. A 32-point difference on the rating scale. Goal expectation splits 1.98 to 1.70. Scorelines above 8%: 2. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 63.6% to 36.4%. Final score: 1-0. Spread across the three results is 27.4 points. On components there is almost nothing in it: 1.20 to 1.19 forward, 1.06 to 1.11 back. Someone wins 75.4% of the time by this model. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 8.5%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Raw profiles are 1.20 and 1.06 against 1.19 and 1.11.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
AZ edged past Telstar 1-0 on 20 September 2026. Mexx Meerdink opened the scoring in the 19th minute for AZ, set up by Valdemar Andreasen, to make it 1-0. Gerald Alders (41') was booked. AZ are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form.