The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to NEC, 0 to Go Ahead, 1 drawn, 3-2 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in comp-fd-DED. The live ratings are 1586 and 1460, giving 64.3% / 21.3% / 14.4%.
NEC holds both halves of the profile — 1.42 against 1.15 for scoring, 1.06 against 1.11 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. NEC leads the distribution by 43.0 points over the draw. The model gives 78.7% to someone winning. Higher rating: the home side. The underlying goal expectation is 2.34 for NEC, 1.64 for Go Ahead. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The four component numbers read 1.42, 1.06, 1.15, 1.11. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +86 and -40. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 8.4%. Outcomes span 49.9 points. NEC carries the largest share, 64.3%. A 126-point spread sits between the two figures. NEC's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 75.0%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
NEC and Go Ahead drew 1-1 on 20 September 2026. Perr Schuurs opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for NEC, set up by Tjaronn Chery, to make it 1-0. Stefán Ingi Sigurðarson levelled it inside the first 10 minutes for Go Ahead to make it 1-1. Søren Tengstedt (31') and Thibo Baeten (77') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have NEC 126 points stronger than Go Ahead.