Prior record: 14-7-1 across 22 since 2010. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in Eredivisie. Today those sides rate 1541 and 1586, 45 apart, which resolves to 39.3% / 27.3% / 33.4%.
Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 8.5%. Neither side holds both halves — NEC scores at 1.42, Ajax concedes at 0.93. Played and finished 1-1. The four component numbers read 1.21, 0.93, 1.42, 1.06. The higher rating expects 47.1% of the points, the lower 52.9%. The gap between first and second outcome is 5.9 points, Ajax ahead of NEC. With 42 and 34 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Versus the 1500 seed: +41 and +86. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 45 points. Higher rating: the away side. xG: 1.90 to 1.79. Rounded, that is 1-1. Top of the distribution: Ajax, 39.3%. A decisive result carries 72.7% against 27.3% for the draw. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. A 12.0-point range covers every outcome here.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Ajax: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; 17 goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-2 draw at home to Excelsior on 19 September; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Willem II on 15 September.
Against Excelsior in Eredivisie, Ajax scored two and conceded two on 19 September; the at home result was 2-2. Ajax's at home game on 15 September (Eredivisie) ended 5-1 against Willem II, with five goals for and one against. On 12 September, Sittard faced Ajax in Eredivisie: Ajax won 5-1 away from home, having scored five and conceded one. Eredivisie, 5 September brought a home meeting with PSV; Ajax lost 1-3, a return of one goal scored and three conceded. Ajax visited Telstar on 30 August (Eredivisie) and won 4-0; their goals totalled four, compared with zero conceded.
Before kickoff, Eredivisie's results-based standings placed Ajax 5th after seven matches and 14 points.
NEC came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding ten. A 1-1 draw at home to Go Ahead (20 September) was their most recent result.
20 September: NEC drew 1-1 against Go Ahead at home in Eredivisie, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Cambuur in Eredivisie, NEC scored zero and conceded three on 12 September; the away from home result was 0-3. NEC's at home game on 8 September (Eredivisie) ended 2-2 against Excelsior, with two goals for and two against. On 5 September, Feyenoord faced NEC in Eredivisie: NEC lost 1-3 at home, having scored one and conceded three. Eredivisie, 29 August brought an away meeting with Zwolle; NEC won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded.
NEC: 11th, eight points, seven matches in the calculated Eredivisie standings at kickoff.
The last two recorded meetings were a 1-1 draw at Ajax on 21 February and a 2-2 draw at NEC on 20 December 2025.
After the match
Ajax and NEC drew 1-1 on 10 October 2026. Toluwalas Arokodare opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Ajax, set up by Jorthy Mokio, to make it 1-0. Tjaronn Chery levelled it from the penalty spot in the 19th minute for NEC to make it 1-1. Jorthy Mokio (17'), Bryan Linssen (33'), Gabriel Brás (54') and Abdellah Ouazane (67') were booked. Ajax are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. Ajax picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Ajax was five. After coming on for Ajax in minute 60, Abdellah Ouazane was booked. NEC picked up two yellow cards. NEC: four substitutions.