2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 6-1. The latest was 2026, 4-0 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1694 and 1471 drive a 75.0% / 17.9% / 7.0% distribution.
A 68.0-point range top to bottom. Played and finished 4-0. The underlying goal expectation is 2.22 for Roma, 0.66 for Fiorentina. 75.0% goes to Roma, the model's lean. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-0 on 13.9%. The home side is rated higher. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 66.0% / 20.8% / 13.1%. That call matched the result. In absolute terms: Roma 1.52/0.64, Fiorentina 0.76/0.98 on attack and defence. Win-or-lose totals 82.0%; the draw takes the rest. Rating separation comes to 223 points. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 41 matches respectively sit behind them. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The higher-rated side expects 84.0% of the points; the other side 16.0%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +194 and -29. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 2-0. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Both components point the same way, toward Roma: 1.52 to 0.76 going forward, 0.64 to 0.98 going back.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Roma overwhelmed Fiorentina 4-0 on 24 August 2026. Donyell Malen opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Roma, set up by Paulo Dybala, to make it 1-0. Donyell Malen added to the tally 52 minutes into the game for Roma, set up by Paulo Dybala, to make it 2-0. Donyell Malen added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for Roma, set up by Paulo Dybala, to make it 3-0. Niccolo Pisilli added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Roma to make it 4-0. Nicolò Fagioli (30'), Mario Hermoso (38'), Manu Koné (49') and Mateo Pellegrino (63') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Roma 223 points stronger than Fiorentina. On current ratings the model favours Roma at 75% in this pairing, and Roma won this one. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Serie A 2025/26, Serie A 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.