2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 4-6. The latest was 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-SA. Today those sides rate 1438 and 1578, 140 apart, which resolves to 26.6% / 25.4% / 48.0%.
The away side is rated higher. The distribution runs from 48.0% down to 25.4%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -62 and +78. Neither figure is thin: 43 and 41 matches respectively sit behind them. Neither component contradicts the other: Milan leads 1.02-0.90 forward and 0.78-1.17 back. Goal expectation splits 1.03 to 1.61. Rounded, that is 1-1. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 11.8%. The forecast we stored before the match was 32.0% / 26.9% / 41.1%. It landed. Attack/defence pairs: 0.90/1.17 and 1.02/0.78. Final score: 1-2. Top of the distribution: Milan, 48.0%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The higher rating expects 60.6% of the points, the lower 39.4%. The two ratings differ by 140 points. 74.6% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Milan holds a 21.4-point edge on the next outcome.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Milan edged past Torino 2-1 on 23 August 2026. Alphadjo Cisse opened the scoring 64 minutes into the game for Milan, set up by Adrien Rabiot, to make it 1-0. Adrien Rabiot added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Milan, set up by Samuel Chukwueze, to make it 2-0. Che Adams pulled one back in the 93rd minute for Torino, set up by Gvidas Gineitis, to make it 1-2. Ruben Loftus-Cheek (52') was booked. Adrien Rabiot and Che Adams scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Milan 140 points stronger than Torino. Every goal came after the interval. Milan are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.