On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 1-5 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-SA. The live ratings are 1520 and 1500, giving 49.5% / 25.0% / 25.5%.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The higher rating expects 62.0% of the points, the lower 38.0%. 49.5% goes to Atalanta, the model's lean. Sassuolo has the better scoring rate (1.03) and Atalanta the better defensive one (1.00). Logged in advance of kickoff — 57.0% / 23.2% / 19.7%. That call matched the result. The gap between first and second outcome is 24.0 points, Atalanta ahead of Sassuolo. Versus the 1500 seed: +20 and 0. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 11.9%. Its point estimate is 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Expected goals sit at 1.42 against 1.40. 75.0% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The ratings draw on 55 and 42 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. In absolute terms: Atalanta 0.91/1.00, Sassuolo 1.03/1.05 on attack and defence. Played and finished 2-1. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 20 points. Scorelines above 8%: 5.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Atalanta edged past Sassuolo 2-1 on 23 August 2026. Giacomo Raspadori opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Atalanta, set up by Gianluca Gaetano, to make it 1-0. Cas Odenthal levelled it 55 minutes into the game for Sassuolo to make it 1-1. Atalanta regained the lead through Nikola Krstović 65 minutes into the game, set up by Marco Carnesecchi, to make it 2-1. Nikola Krstović scored after coming off the bench. Atalanta won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.