On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2026, 0-1 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1473 and 1703 drive a 16.8% / 22.2% / 60.9% distribution.
Rounded, that is 0-2. Neither figure is thin: 42 and 43 matches respectively sit behind them. The model's preferred outcome is Como 1907 at 60.9%. 77.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -27 and +203. The four component numbers read 0.91, 0.99, 1.49, 0.64. Como 1907's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 72.1%. The gap between first and second outcome is 38.7 points, Como 1907 ahead of the draw. 230 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. The forecast we stored before the match was 26.7% / 25.4% / 47.9%. The match did not follow it. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The scoreline spread is even — 0-2 on 11.3% leads, but only just. Result on the day: 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.87 and 2.01. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Outcomes span 44.1 points.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Udinese and Como 1907 drew 1-1 on 22 August 2026. Hassane Kamara opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Udinese, set up by Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, to make it 1-0. Anastasios Douvikas levelled it 54 minutes into the game for Como 1907 to make it 1-1. Jakub Piotrowski (28'), James Abankwah (41') and Unai Gomez (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Como 1907 230 points stronger than Udinese.