On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 0-5 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-SA. Today those sides rate 1502 and 1712, 210 apart, which resolves to 18.8% / 22.9% / 58.2%.
Honours split: 1.68 forward for Inter, 0.83 back for Cagliari. The three results cover 39.4 points. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 210 points. The higher-rated side expects 69.7% of the points; the other side 30.3%. Win-or-lose totals 77.0%; the draw takes the rest. Expected goals 1.15-1.89. Inter sits 35.3 points above the next most likely result. It ended 0-1. Most likely single result is Inter on 58.2%. Point estimate: 1-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.79/0.83 and 1.68/0.98. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +2 and +212. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 15.6% / 21.8% / 62.6%. It landed. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 43 and 53 rated matches respectively. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.4% — not a strong call. The away side is rated higher.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Inter edged past Cagliari 1-0 on 30 August 2026. Hakan Çalhanoğlu opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Inter, set up by Nicolò Barella, to make it 1-0. Manuel Akanji (14') and Alessandro Deiola (56') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Inter at 58.2% in this pairing, and Inter won this one.