On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 2-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-SA. Against that, current ratings read 1471 and 1438, a 33-point margin, and the model splits the tie 51.5% / 24.6% / 24.0%.
75.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Neither figure is thin: 41 and 43 matches respectively sit behind them. 51.5% goes to Fiorentina, the model's lean. Versus the 1500 seed: -29 and -62. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 54.6% / 23.8% / 21.6%. That one did not come off. The underlying goal expectation is 1.32 for Fiorentina, 1.19 for Torino. The three results cover 27.5 points. By expected share of the points: 63.7% and 36.3%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. It ended 1-2. In absolute terms: Fiorentina 0.76/0.98, Torino 0.90/1.17 on attack and defence. Fiorentina holds a 26.9-point edge on the next outcome. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Honours split: 0.90 forward for Torino, 0.98 back for Fiorentina. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.8% leads, but only just. The home side is rated higher.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.
Match Report
Torino edged past Fiorentina 2-1 on 5 September 2026. Our current Elo ratings make Fiorentina slightly the stronger side, by 33 rating points over Torino, even though it was Torino who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Torino only a 24% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Torino won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.