On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 3-5 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1712 and 1579 drive a 65.2% / 21.1% / 13.7% distribution.
Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 9.6%. The four component numbers read 1.68, 0.98, 1.03, 0.79. Ratings sit 133 apart. Elo expected shares: 75.8% and 24.2%. Result on the day: 3-2. Both figures rest on decent samples, 53 and 52 matches. Honours split: 1.68 forward for Inter, 0.79 back for Napoli. Higher rating: the home side. Versus the 1500 seed: +212 and +79. Expected goals sit at 1.97 against 1.36. Win-or-lose totals 78.9%; the draw takes the rest. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A 51.5-point range top to bottom. The gap between first and second outcome is 44.1 points, Inter ahead of the draw. Most likely single result is Inter on 65.2%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Before kickoff our model had this at 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5%. It landed. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Inter edged past Napoli 3-2 on 5 September 2026. Antonio Vergara (35') was booked. On current ratings the model favours Inter at 65.2% in this pairing, and Inter won this one. Inter won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.