Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-SA. Today those sides rate 1459 and 1500, 41 apart, which resolves to 40.0% / 27.1% / 32.9%.
Before kickoff our model had this at 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.6%. The match did not follow it. Higher rating: the away side. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.6%. With 43 and 42 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Expected goals 1.26-1.31. The tie closed out 2-2. A decisive result carries 72.9% against 27.1% for the draw. A 41-point difference on the rating scale. The model's preferred outcome is Bologna at 40.0%. Most and least likely outcomes are 12.9 points apart. Attack/defence pairs: 0.81/0.94 and 1.03/1.05. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -41 and 0. The edge is split: Sassuolo scores at the higher rate (1.03 to 0.81), Bologna concedes at the lower (0.94 to 1.05). Its rounded call is 1-1. Bologna leads the distribution by 7.1 points over Sassuolo. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The higher-rated side expects 46.6% of the points; the other side 53.4%. Scorelines above 8%: 5.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.