Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2026 the split is 0-1-1 from Roma's side on wins, 1-2 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-SA. Today those sides rate 1694 and 1520, 174 apart, which resolves to 70.0% / 19.6% / 10.3%.
The tie closed out 2-1. Scorelines above 8%: 5. 70.0% goes to Roma, the model's lean. The four component numbers read 1.52, 0.64, 0.91, 1.00. Flat distribution — 2-0 tops it at just 12.1%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 43 and 55 matches. The higher rating expects 79.8% of the points, the lower 20.2%. Roma holds both halves of the profile — 1.52 against 0.91 for scoring, 0.64 against 1.00 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The xG line reads 2.26 to 0.79. 174 points of rating separation. The single-scoreline output is 2-0. Roma leads the distribution by 50.4 points over the draw. Most and least likely outcomes are 59.7 points apart. Higher rating: the home side. 80.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Logged in advance of kickoff — 61.1% / 22.2% / 16.7%. That call matched the result.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Roma edged past Atalanta 2-1 on 5 September 2026. Éderson opened the scoring 47 minutes into the game for Atalanta to make it 1-0. Mario Hermoso levelled it late on, in the 89th minute for Roma, set up by Matias Soule, to make it 1-1. Matias Soule put Roma in front in the 93rd minute, set up by Paulo Dybala, to make it 2-1. Gian Piero Gasperini (40'), Maurizio Sarri (55') and Raoul Bellanova (84') were booked. Matias Soule scored after coming off the bench. Every goal came after the interval. On current ratings the model favours Roma at 70% in this pairing, and Roma won this one. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Serie A 2025/26, Serie A 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27. Roma won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.