Prior record: 0-1-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1387 and 1703 drive a 9.5% / 19.2% / 71.3% distribution.
In absolute terms: Genoa 0.68/1.09, Como 1907 1.49/0.64 on attack and defence. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The model gives 80.8% to someone winning. The three results cover 61.8 points. There is no trade-off to weigh: Como 1907 scores at the higher rate (1.49 to 0.68) and concedes at the lower (0.64 to 1.09). Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -113 and +203. Expected shares 19.1% against 80.9% on Elo. Its point estimate is 0-2. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. Expected goals come out at 0.65 to 2.20. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-2 at 14.0%. The model's preferred outcome is Como 1907 at 71.3%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 16.7% / 22.2% / 61.1%. It landed. Behind them are 42 and 43 rated matches. The gap between first and second outcome is 52.1 points, Como 1907 ahead of the draw.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Como 1907 comfortably beat Genoa 4-1 on 4 September 2026. Milutin Osmajić opened the scoring in the 19th minute for Genoa, set up by Lorenzo Colombo, to make it 1-0. Martin Baturina levelled it in the 25th minute for Como 1907, set up by Alex Valle, to make it 1-1. Assane Diao put Como 1907 in front in the 30th minute to make it 2-1. Nico Paz added to the tally in the 40th minute for Como 1907, set up by Yan Couto, to make it 3-1. Assane Diao added to the tally 78 minutes into the game for Como 1907, set up by Moise Kean, to make it 4-1. Djibril Sow (36'), Martin Baturina (60') and Leo Østigård (62') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Como 1907 316 points stronger than Genoa. On current ratings the model favours Como 1907 at 71.3% in this pairing, and Como 1907 won this one.