2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 1-2. The latest was 2026, 0-2 in comp-fd-SA. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1438 and 1694 — 256 points — for a 14.3% / 21.3% / 64.4% split.
What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Both components point the same way, toward Roma: 1.52 to 0.90 going forward, 0.64 to 1.17 going back. A 50.1-point range top to bottom. The tie closed out 0-2. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-2. The rating gap itself is 256 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The forecast we stored before the match was 14.9% / 21.5% / 63.6%. It landed. The away side is rated higher. xG: 0.85 to 2.40. A decisive result carries 78.7% against 21.3% for the draw. The ratings draw on 43 and 43 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The four component numbers read 0.90, 1.17, 1.52, 0.64. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-2 on 11.1%. Most likely single result is Roma on 64.4%. The leading outcome clears the second by 43.1 points. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -62 and +194.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Roma beat Torino 2-0 on 14 September 2026. Donyell Malen opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Roma to make it 1-0. Niccolo Pisilli added to the tally in the 93rd minute for Roma to make it 2-0. Mario Hermoso (61') and Niccolo Pisilli (72') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Roma 256 points stronger than Torino. On current ratings the model favours Roma at 64.4% in this pairing, and Roma won this one. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Serie A 2025/26, Serie A 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.