The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Como 1907, 0 to Parma, 1 drawn, 1-0 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-SA. Today those sides rate 1703 and 1427, 276 apart, which resolves to 79.6% / 16.1% / 4.3%.
5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 43 and 42 matches. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +203 and -73. There is no trade-off to weigh: Como 1907 scores at the higher rate (1.49 to 0.61) and concedes at the lower (0.64 to 0.95). Raw profiles are 1.49 and 0.64 against 0.61 and 0.95. Higher rating: the home side. 2-0 is the single most probable result at 15.8%, clear of 1-0 on 15.0%. Top of the distribution: Como 1907, 79.6%. Goal expectation splits 2.11 to 0.53. Elo expected shares: 87.7% and 12.3%. Its point estimate is 2-0. The distribution runs from 79.6% down to 4.3%. First to second is a 63.5-point step, Como 1907 over the draw. Final score: 2-1. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Before kickoff our model had this at 77.5% / 17.0% / 5.5%. It landed.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Como 1907 edged past Parma 2-1 on 14 September 2026. Jacobo Ramón opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for Como 1907, set up by Nico Paz, to make it 1-0. Kaiki Bruno added to the tally late on, in the 83rd minute for Como 1907, set up by Maximo Perrone, to make it 2-0. José Romero pulled one back in the 92nd minute for Parma, set up by Pontus Almqvist, to make it 1-2. Maxence Caqueret (76') was booked. José Romero scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Como 1907 276 points stronger than Parma. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Como 1907 at 79.6% in this pairing, and Como 1907 won this one.