Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-SA. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1712 and 1473 — 239 points — for a 76.5% / 17.4% / 6.2% split.
The rating gap itself is 239 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Neither component contradicts the other: Inter leads 1.68-0.91 forward and 0.98-0.99 back. Elo expected shares: 85.2% and 14.8%. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +212 and -27. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.3%. Inter carries the largest share, 76.5%. Before kickoff our model had this at 71.5% / 19.1% / 9.3%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. A decisive result carries 82.7% against 17.4% for the draw. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 53 and 42 matches. The home side is rated higher. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The underlying goal expectation is 2.48 for Inter, 1.21 for Udinese. The tie closed out 5-3. Raw profiles are 1.68 and 0.98 against 0.91 and 0.99.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Inter beat Udinese 5-3 on 14 September 2026. James Abankwah opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Udinese, set up by Unai Gomez, to make it 1-0. Jurgen Ekkelenkamp added to the tally in the 16th minute for Udinese, set up by Keinan Davis, to make it 2-0. Carlos Augusto Lobaton pulled one back in the 26th minute for Inter to make it 1-2. Nicolò Barella levelled it in the 35th minute for Inter, set up by Marcus Thuram-Ulien, to make it 2-2. Marcus Thuram-Ulien put Inter in front 57 minutes into the game, set up by Andy Diouf, to make it 3-2. Francesco Esposito added to the tally 67 minutes into the game for Inter, set up by Piotr Zieliński, to make it 4-2. Ange-Yoan Bonny added to the tally 79 minutes into the game for Inter to make it 5-2. Idrissa Guèye got one back in the 91st minute for Udinese, set up by Vakoun Issouf Bayo, to make it 3-5. Keinan Davis (45') and Henrikh Mkhitaryan (60') were booked. Ange-Yoan Bonny and Idrissa Guèye scored after coming off the bench. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Inter 239 points stronger than Udinese. On current ratings the model favours Inter at 76.5% in this pairing, and Inter won this one. On current ratings the model puts Inter at around 2.48 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here.