Prior record: 1-0-1 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-SA. The present numbers are 1559 against 1578, and the model turns that into 43.3% / 26.4% / 30.3%.
4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. First to second is a 13.0-point step, Lazio over Milan. Higher rating: the away side. Win-or-lose totals 73.6%; the draw takes the rest. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +59 and +78. Final score: 2-2. Raw profiles are 0.87 and 0.80 against 1.02 and 0.78. Between best and worst outcome there is 16.9 points of daylight. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 13.5%. Ratings sit 19 apart. Top of the distribution: Lazio, 43.3%. Both components point the same way, toward Milan: 1.02 to 0.87 going forward, 0.78 to 0.80 going back. On expected goals the model has it 1.00 against 1.10. Point estimate: 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 41 and 41 matches. Milan's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 43.4%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.