The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Napoli, 2 to Bologna, 0 drawn, 2-5 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-SA. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1579 and 1459 — 120 points — for a 63.5% / 21.5% / 14.9% split.
Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +79 and -41. Point estimate: 1-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 52 and 43 matches. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.44 and 0.86. A 120-point spread sits between the two figures. The match finished 1-0. Napoli sits 42.0 points above the next most likely result. Before kickoff our model had this at 60.9% / 22.3% / 16.8%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-0 highest at 14.4%. Most and least likely outcomes are 48.6 points apart. Top of the distribution: Napoli, 63.5%. Expected shares 74.4% against 25.6% on Elo. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. A decisive result carries 78.4% against 21.5% for the draw. The four component numbers read 1.03, 0.79, 0.81, 0.94.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Napoli edged past Bologna 1-0 on 13 September 2026. Stanislav Lobotka opened the scoring 66 minutes into the game for Napoli, set up by Costantino Favasuli, to make it 1-0. Mikel Amondarain (31') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Napoli 120 points stronger than Bologna. On current ratings the model favours Napoli at 63.5% in this pairing, and Napoli won this one. Napoli won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.