2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-1. The latest was 2026, 1-0 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1603 and 1520 drive a 58.7% / 22.8% / 18.4% distribution.
Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 52 and 55 matches. The forecast we stored before the match was 56.8% / 23.3% / 19.9%. The result went the way that forecast pointed. Most and least likely outcomes are 40.3 points apart. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-0. Juventus leads the distribution by 35.9 points over the draw. Higher rating: the home side. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Most likely single result is Juventus on 58.7%. The scoreline spread is even — 1-0 on 11.8% leads, but only just. Versus the 1500 seed: +103 and +20. Raw profiles are 1.20 and 0.77 against 0.91 and 1.00. The tie closed out 2-0. Both components point the same way, toward Juventus: 1.20 to 0.91 going forward, 0.77 to 1.00 going back. 83 points of rating separation. On expected goals the model has it 1.78 against 0.94.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Juventus beat Atalanta 2-0 on 20 September 2026. Thomas Kristensen (17'), Francisco Conceição (22') and Franck Kessié (43') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Juventus at 58.7% in this pairing, and Juventus won this one.