Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-5 in comp-fd-SA. The live ratings are 1694 and 1712, giving 43.6% / 26.3% / 30.1%.
Roma sits 13.5 points above the next most likely result. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. Someone wins 73.7% of the time by this model. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.68 to 1.52 says Inter, 0.64 to 0.98 says Roma. The four component numbers read 1.52, 0.64, 1.68, 0.98. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.1%. The model's preferred outcome is Roma at 43.6%. The away side is rated higher. Behind them are 43 and 53 rated matches. The two ratings differ by 18 points. Final score: 2-2. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 56.7% and 43.3%. Versus the 1500 seed: +194 and +212. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 43.6% / 26.3% / 30.0%. The result went the other way. The underlying goal expectation is 2.21 for Roma, 1.45 for Inter. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 17.3-point range top to bottom.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Roma and Inter drew 2-2 on 19 September 2026. Nicolò Barella (11') and Manuel Akanji (45') were booked. Roma are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Serie A 2025/26, Serie A 2026/27 and Champions League 2026/27.