2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2025, aggregate 2-5. The latest was 2026, 1-2 in comp-fd-SA. Against that, current ratings read 1471 and 1579, a 108-point margin, and the model splits the tie 30.6% / 26.5% / 42.9%.
With 41 and 52 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Recorded ahead of kickoff: 31.2% / 26.7% / 42.1%. That one did not come off. The away side is rated higher. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. First to second is a 12.3-point step, Napoli over Fiorentina. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -29 and +79. Neither component contradicts the other: Napoli leads 1.03-0.76 forward and 0.79-0.98 back. Attack/defence pairs: 0.76/0.98 and 1.03/0.79. The model gives 73.5% to someone winning. Played and finished 1-1. Spread across the three results is 16.4 points. Expected goals 0.89-1.37. Napoli carries the largest share, 42.9%. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 0-1 at 14.3%. A 108-point difference on the rating scale. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 43.8% to 56.2%.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Fiorentina and Napoli drew 1-1 on 20 September 2026. Billy Gilmour opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for Napoli, set up by Matteo Politano, to make it 1-0. Álex Jiménez levelled it 51 minutes into the game for Fiorentina, set up by Cher Ndour, to make it 1-1. Franco Mastantuono (42'), Luca Ranieri (62') and David De Gea (83') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Napoli 108 points stronger than Fiorentina.