The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 0 to Parma, 0 to Genoa, 2 drawn, 0-0 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1427 and 1387 drive a 52.5% / 24.3% / 23.1% distribution.
Versus the 1500 seed: -73 and -113. The model gives 75.6% to someone winning. First to second is a 28.2-point step, Parma over the draw. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Expected shares 64.7% against 35.3% on Elo. Distance between the ratings: 40 points, moderate on this scale. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The split is one apiece: Genoa leads the attacking rate on 0.68, Parma the defensive on 0.95. The forecast we stored before the match was 49.4% / 25.0% / 25.6%. That call matched the result. Most and least likely outcomes are 29.4 points apart. The four component numbers read 0.61, 0.95, 0.68, 1.09. Played and finished 2-1. Neither figure is thin: 42 and 42 matches respectively sit behind them. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Point estimate: 0-0. The xG line reads 0.99 to 0.87. Parma carries the largest share, 52.5%. Of the individual scorelines, 0-0 carries the most weight at 15.5% — 1-0 is next at 15.4%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Parma edged past Genoa 2-1 on 20 September 2026. Dominik Drobnič (9'), Sebastian Otoa (14') and Alessandro Marcandalli (44') were booked. Parma won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.