Prior record: 1-1-0 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-SA. History aside, the live ratings of 1473 and 1502 drive a 41.9% / 26.7% / 31.4% distribution.
Both figures rest on decent samples, 42 and 43 matches. The higher-rated side expects 44.8% of the points; the other side 55.2%. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 13.4%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.13 for Udinese, 1.07 for Cagliari. Logged in advance of kickoff — 49.3% / 25.1% / 25.6%. The result went the other way. Played and finished 0-1. A decisive result carries 73.3% against 26.7% for the draw. Spread across the three results is 15.2 points. The higher rating belongs to the away side. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The four component numbers read 0.91, 0.99, 0.79, 0.83. Top of the distribution: Udinese, 41.9%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. One half each — Udinese in front on 0.91, Cagliari behind on 0.83. A 10.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The rating gap itself is 29 points, which is moderate by the model's standards.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Cagliari edged past Udinese 1-0 on 19 September 2026. Daniel Maldini opened the scoring 54 minutes into the game for Cagliari to make it 1-0. Nicolò Zaniolo (4') and Jesper Karlström (22') were booked. Cagliari won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.