Atalanta 0–3 Parma: result & stats

Gooolll model readHow this works

Current ratings

1483against1417

A 66-point difference on the rating scale.

The present numbers

Recorded ahead of kickoff

Goal expectation

Atalanta1.54

Parma1.09

Expected share of the points

01
Across 18 recorded meetings back to 2011 the split is 11-3-4 in Atalanta's favour on wins, 40-22 on goals. The last was 2026, 4-0 in Serie A. The live ratings are 1483 and 1417, giving 56.4% / 23.4% / 20.2%.
02
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.54 and 1.09. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -17 and -83. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The three results cover 36.2 points. Result on the day: 0-3. The leading outcome clears the second by 33.0 points. The two ratings differ by 66 points. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Rounded, that is 1-1. Higher rating: the home side. The four component numbers read 1.09, 1.25, 0.64, 0.95. Our pre-match read, logged before the game: 67.2% / 20.5% / 12.3%. The result went the other way. Atalanta's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 68.0%. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.09 to 0.64 says Atalanta, 0.95 to 1.25 says Parma. 56.4% goes to Atalanta, the model's lean. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.1% leads, but only just. Behind them are 60 and 50 rated matches.
03
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.

Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.

Match report

Parma comfortably beat Atalanta 3-0 on 2 November 2026.

Before the match

Atalanta came into the game with one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring 11 goals and conceding 12. On 29 October, Atalanta recorded a 2-2 draw visiting Fiorentina.

29 October: Atalanta drew 2-2 against Fiorentina away from home in Serie A, scoring two goals and allowing two. Against Frosinone in Serie A, Atalanta scored four and conceded four on 25 October; the at home result was 4-4. Atalanta's away from home game on 18 October (Serie A) ended 2-3 against Milan, with two goals for and three against. On 12 October, Venezia FC faced Atalanta in Serie A: Atalanta won 3-1 at home, having scored three and conceded one. Serie A, 20 September brought an away meeting with Juventus; Atalanta lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded.

Atalanta stood 13th in the results-based Serie A table before kickoff, with 11 points from nine matches.

Parma: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; three goals scored, nine conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 0-0 draw at home to Udinese on 28 October.

On 28 October, Udinese faced Parma in Serie A: Parma drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. Serie A, 24 October brought an away meeting with Lazio; Parma lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded. Parma hosted Torino on 19 October (Serie A) and lost 0-3; their goals totalled zero, compared with three conceded. Inter hosted Parma (Serie A) on 10 October. For Parma, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 2-1 was Parma's result against Genoa on 20 September (Serie A), playing at home; Parma won, with two scored to one conceded.

five points in nine matches put Parma 18th in the pre-match results-based Serie A standings.

Previous meetings in our records: a 4-0 home win for Atalanta on 25 January and a 1-1 draw at Parma on 30 August 2025.

After the match

Giovanni Fabbian opened the scoring in the 41st minute for Parma, set up by Vincent Sierro, to make it 1-0. Davide Zappacosta (an own goal) added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for Parma to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Parma extended the lead through Simone Lontani 58 minutes into the game, set up by Giovanni Fabbian, to make it 3-0. Our current Elo ratings make Atalanta slightly the stronger side, by 66 rating points over Parma, even though it was Parma who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Parma only a 20.2% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Atalanta made four changes. Parma: five substitutions. Parma conceded no goals.