The head-to-head counts 2 recorded meetings since 2025: 1 to Heerenveen, 1 to AZ, 0 drawn, 3-4 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-3 in comp-fd-DED. History aside, the live ratings of 1528 and 1521 drive a 47.4% / 25.5% / 27.1% distribution.
Heerenveen leads the distribution by 20.3 points over AZ. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Played and finished 2-3. Most likely single result is Heerenveen on 47.4%. The higher rating expects 60.2% of the points, the lower 39.8%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +28 and +21. The xG line reads 1.86 to 1.71. Its rounded call is 1-1. Raw profiles are 1.19 and 1.06 against 1.20 and 1.06. No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 8.9%. The distribution runs from 47.4% down to 25.5%. The rating gap itself is 7 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Behind them are 34 and 34 rated matches. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 1.19 versus 1.20 in attack and 1.06 versus 1.06 at the back. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
AZ edged past Heerenveen 3-2 on 6 September 2026. Ro-Zangelo Daal opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for AZ, set up by Wouter Goes, to make it 1-0. Nolhan Courtens levelled it in the 21st minute for Heerenveen, set up by Dylan Vente, to make it 1-1. Ringo Meerveld put Heerenveen in front in the 30th minute, set up by Dirk Proper, to make it 2-1. Mexx Meerdink levelled it 69 minutes into the game for AZ, set up by Valdemar Andreasen, to make it 2-2. AZ regained the lead through Ayoub Oufkir late on, in the 83rd minute, set up by Mexx Meerdink, to make it 3-2. Nolhan Courtens (28'), Ro-Zangelo Daal (54') and Ayoub Oufkir (90') were booked. Ayoub Oufkir scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives AZ only a 27.1% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. AZ are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form.