On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 4-4 on aggregate, 2 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in comp-fd-DED. Against that, current ratings read 1541 and 1684, a 143-point margin, and the model splits the tie 26.3% / 25.3% / 48.4%.
One edge each: scoring to PSV (2.04 v 1.21), conceding to Ajax (0.93 v 1.08). Behind them are 42 and 42 rated matches. Rounded, that is 1-2. PSV carries the largest share, 48.4%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 7.0%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.94 and 2.57. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +41 and +184. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 39.0% to 61.0%. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 74.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The higher rating belongs to the away side. In absolute terms: Ajax 1.21/0.93, PSV 2.04/1.08 on attack and defence. Result on the day: 1-3. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Outcomes span 23.1 points. First to second is a 22.1-point step, PSV over Ajax. 143 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
PSV beat Ajax 3-1 on 5 September 2026. Ricardo Pepi opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for PSV, set up by Ruben van Bommel, to make it 1-0. Toluwalas Arokodare levelled it in the 23rd minute for Ajax to make it 1-1. PSV regained the lead through Lutsharel Geertruida 46 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Esmir Bajraktarevic added to the tally in the 92nd minute for PSV, set up by Sven Mijnans, to make it 3-1. 9 players were booked, among them Kodai Sano (16'), Noah Fernandez (37'), Filip Kostić (74'), Davy Klaassen (80'), Ivan Perišić (81') and Youri Baas (81'). Esmir Bajraktarevic scored after coming off the bench. PSV won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.