Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 1-1-0 in Utrecht's favour on wins, 4-2 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-DED. Today those sides rate 1566 and 1460, 106 apart, which resolves to 61.7% / 22.0% / 16.2%.
The distribution runs from 61.7% down to 16.2%. Rounded, that is 1-1. Scorelines above 8%: 2. The leading outcome clears the second by 39.7 points. The home side is rated higher. On expected goals the model has it 1.98 against 1.40. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Final score: 3-3. There is no trade-off to weigh: Utrecht scores at the higher rate (1.21 to 1.15) and concedes at the lower (0.91 to 1.11). No scoreline stands out; 1-1 only leads on 9.4%. Versus the 1500 seed: +66 and -40. The higher-rated side expects 72.8% of the points; the other side 27.2%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. 61.7% goes to Utrecht, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 1.21 and 0.91 against 1.15 and 1.11. The model gives 77.9% to someone winning. 106 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Utrecht and Go Ahead drew 3-3 on 8 September 2026. Davy van den Berg (44'), Artem Stepanov (65') and Joris Kramer (65') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Utrecht 106 points stronger than Go Ahead.