On record: 2 meetings from 2025, 1-2 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 1-1 in comp-fd-DED. Against that, current ratings read 1417 and 1405, a 12-point margin, and the model splits the tie 48.4% / 25.3% / 26.3%.
2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Attack/defence pairs: 0.85/1.38 and 0.94/1.52. Sparta's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 60.9%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 74.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 22.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The model's preferred outcome is Sparta at 48.4%. Rating separation comes to 12 points. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 23.1 points of daylight. The underlying goal expectation is 1.92 for Sparta, 1.75 for Zwolle. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -83 and -95. Behind them are 34 and 34 rated matches. The home side is rated higher. The split is one apiece: Zwolle leads the attacking rate on 0.94, Sparta the defensive on 1.38. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 8.6%. It ended 2-2.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Sparta and Zwolle drew 2-2 on 4 September 2026. Ibrahim Cissoko opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Zwolle, set up by Dylan Mbayo, to make it 1-0. Milan Zonneveld levelled it in the 24th minute for Sparta, set up by Julian Baas, to make it 1-1. Isaac Babadi put Sparta in front 69 minutes into the game, set up by Milan Zonneveld, to make it 2-1. Koen Kostons levelled it 80 minutes into the game for Zwolle, set up by Tobias Sommer, to make it 2-2. Sheral Floranus (63') and Tobias Sommer (86') were booked. Isaac Babadi scored after coming off the bench.