Prior record: 0-0-2 across 2 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 2-3 in comp-fd-DED. The live ratings are 1489 and 1541, giving 38.1% / 27.5% / 34.4%.
Ajax is ahead on each half — 1.21 to 1.19 in attack, 0.93 to 1.11 in defence. A 10.6-point range covers every outcome here. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -11 and +41. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 52 points. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Both figures rest on decent samples, 34 and 42 matches. The four component numbers read 1.19, 1.11, 1.21, 0.93. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 9.4%. The higher-rated side expects 48.1% of the points; the other side 51.9%. 72.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The top two outcomes are within 3.7 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Expected goals 1.65-1.82. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Top of the distribution: Telstar, 38.1%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Ajax overwhelmed Telstar 4-0 on 30 August 2026. Davy Klaassen opened the scoring in the 37th minute for Ajax, set up by Steven Berghuis, to make it 1-0. Steven Berghuis added to the tally 56 minutes into the game for Ajax, set up by Oscar Gloukh, to make it 2-0. Toluwalas Arokodare added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for Ajax, set up by Steven Berghuis, to make it 3-0. Marcos Leonardo Almeida added to the tally 78 minutes into the game for Ajax to make it 4-0. Marcos Leonardo Almeida scored after coming off the bench. On current ratings the model puts Ajax at around 1.82 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here.