On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2025, 2-2 on goals. Last time: 2026, 0-0 in comp-fd-DED. Against that, current ratings read 1521 and 1460, a 61-point margin, and the model splits the tie 55.6% / 23.6% / 20.8%.
Result on the day: 5-2. Both figures rest on decent samples, 34 and 34 matches. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rounded, that is 1-1. First to second is a 32.0-point step, AZ over the draw. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +21 and -40. The model's preferred outcome is AZ at 55.6%. The higher-rated side expects 67.4% of the points; the other side 32.6%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.97 for AZ, 1.64 for Go Ahead. Raw profiles are 1.20 and 1.06 against 1.15 and 1.11. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 8.8% — not a strong call. Broken into parts the two profiles nearly overlap, 1.20 versus 1.15 in attack and 1.06 versus 1.11 at the back. Ratings sit 61 apart. The model gives 76.4% to someone winning.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
AZ comfortably beat Go Ahead 5-2 on 29 August 2026. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: AZ are 61 points stronger than Go Ahead. On current ratings the model favours AZ at 55.6% in this pairing, and AZ won this one. On current ratings the model puts AZ at around 1.97 goals in this pairing; they scored 5 here. AZ are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form. AZ won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.