Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 2-0-0 in NEC's favour on wins, 7-0 on goals. The last was 2026, 2-0 in comp-fd-DED. The live ratings are 1586 and 1460, giving 64.3% / 21.3% / 14.3%.
The tie closed out 2-2. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 34 and 34 matches. The xG line reads 2.39 to 1.59. Top of the distribution: NEC, 64.3%. Both components point the same way, toward NEC: 1.42 to 1.11 going forward, 1.06 to 1.13 going back. The higher rating expects 75.0% of the points, the lower 25.0%. The home side is rated higher. The model gives 78.6% to someone winning. Attack/defence pairs: 1.42/1.06 and 1.11/1.13. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Most and least likely outcomes are 50.0 points apart. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +86 and -40. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 8.5%. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. 126 points of rating separation. First to second is a 43.0-point step, NEC over the draw.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.